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Nate Silver, Forecasting the Presidential Election, and Baseball

nate_silver_rectNate Silver is becoming a “celebrity forecaster.” And the accolades are well deserved.

Currently, major contributor to the New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight, Silver earlier developed the leading Baseball player performance prediction model PECOTA.

Silver’s work is outstanding. Here’s a study developing a Bayesian Baseball performance model, using PECOTA as a benchmark. While very sophisticated, this Bayesian model does not achieve the success of PECOTA.

Silver also had a good track record in the last General Election, when he was writing under the pseudonym “Poblano.”

Here’s Silver on the The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.

 

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