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Archive for the Operation Management Category

Nate Silver, Forecasting the Presidential Election, and Baseball

Nate Silver, Forecasting the Presidential Election, and Baseball

Nate Silver is becoming a “celebrity forecaster.” And the accolades are well deserved. Currently, major contributor to the New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight, Silver earlier developed the leading Baseball player performance prediction model PECOTA. Silver’s work is outstanding. Here’s a study developing a Bayesian Baseball performance model, using PECOTA as a benchmark. While very sophisticated, this Bayesian model does

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What is Exponential Smoothing?

What is Exponential Smoothing?

This is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed Time Series. Whereas in Single Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. In the case of moving averages, the weights assigned to

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Bullwhips and Beer: Why Supply Chain Management is so Difficult

Bullwhips and Beer: Why Supply Chain Management is so Difficult

Written by Michael Bean on Mar 10, 2006 The basic concept behind supply chain management is simple: customers order products from you; you keep track of what you’re selling, and you order enough raw materials from your suppliers to meet your customers’ demand. So why is it that, in a recent article, the Economist claimed that, “Managing a supply chain

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Supply Chain Management: Beergame

Supply Chain Management: Beergame

Introduction The beergame is a role-play supply chain simulation that lets students experience typical supply chain problems. In the beergame students enact a four stage supply chain. The task is to produce and deliver units of beer: the factory produces and the other three stages deliver the beer units until it reaches the customer at the downstream end of the

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Introduction of supply chain management

Introduction of supply chain management

OPC Notes CT   Presentation Transcript Slide1: Chapter 1 Introduction   INVENTORY: INVENTORY Who cares about it? Real economic impact is worse Cause? Mismatch can take one of two forms Rigidity Process analysis   The Economic Consequences of the Supply-Demand Mismatch are Severe: The Economic Consequences of the Supply-Demand Mismatch are Severe   What Can OPC (This Course) Do to

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