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Monthly archive for June 2013

Nate Silver, Forecasting the Presidential Election, and Baseball

Nate Silver, Forecasting the Presidential Election, and Baseball

Nate Silver is becoming a “celebrity forecaster.” And the accolades are well deserved. Currently, major contributor to the New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight, Silver earlier developed the leading Baseball player performance prediction model PECOTA. Silver’s work is outstanding. Here’s a study developing a Bayesian Baseball performance model, using PECOTA as a benchmark. While very sophisticated, this Bayesian model does

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What is Exponential Smoothing?

What is Exponential Smoothing?

This is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed Time Series. Whereas in Single Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. In the case of moving averages, the weights assigned to

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